The simulations use daily recorded movements of sheep and cattle directly between farms and between farms via markets for 2013. Data were obtained from the Animal and Plant Health Agency (formerly the Animal Health and Veterinary Laboratories Agency, AVHLA) Animal Movement Licensing system (AMLS) and Cattle tracing System (CTS) databases. The model uses UK temperature data from UKCP09 5km daily observed archive.
The simulations shown here are in each case the median (in final outbreak size) obtained from 100 stochastic simulations run by introducing infection into a randomly-selected farm in the specified county on the specified date.
Standard UK bluetongue movement restrictions, according to current policy, are applied in the model. Around an affected farm, three zones are set up: a Control Zone (CZ), radius 20km, within which no movements are allowed. Outside this, and out to 100km, a Protection Zone (PZ) is defined, within which movements are allowed. Finally, beyond this and out to a radius of 150km, is the Surveillance Zone (SZ), within which movements are allowed. Movements are also allowed from the SZ to the PZ and from the "free area" (outside all zones) to the SZ or PZ. If "No restrictions" is selected, zones are ignored and movements are only prevented from farms on which infection has been directly detected.
Pre-emptive vaccination is simulated at two different coverage levels (a randomly-selected 25% and 50% of farms) within a specified area. All farms in the respective zone are coloured blue, with the other farms in grey.
The simulations were driven by UKCP09 temperatures for individual years selected from the period 2006-2015. Temperatures are referenced with respect to the UKCP09-derived England and Wales mean temperature over May to October, which for this period was 13.8 degrees: "very high": 1.4 degC above the mean; "above average": 0.5 degC above the mean; "below average": 0.3 degC below the mean.
Affected farms are those which have experienced at least one BT infected cow or sheep.
This website is provided for information only. The animations shown here are model estimations and do not contain any recorded observations of Bluetongue-affected farms. The model estimations are based on past climate and animal movement data, they are illustrative only and do not constitute any sort of forecast for current or future conditions. The University of Liverpool shall not be responsible or in any way liable for any errors, omissions or inaccuracies on the website whether arising from negligence or otherwise howsoever or for any consequences arising therefrom. In no event shall The University of Liverpool be liable for any loss or damages of any kind arising from the use of, or inability to use, or from any content on our website or linked sites, including but not limited to, direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, and punitive damages.
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