The simulations use daily recorded movements of sheep and cattle directly between farms and between farms via markets for 2013. Data were obtained from the Animal and Plant Health Agency (formerly the Animal Health and Veterinary Laboratories Agency, AVHLA) Animal Movement Licensing system (AMLS) and Cattle tracing System (CTS) databases. The model uses UK temperature data from UKCP09 5km daily observed archive.
The simulations shown here are in each case the median (in final outbreak size) obtained from 100 stochastic simulations run by introducing infection into a randomly-selected farm in the specified county on the specified date.
Standard UK bluetongue movement restrictions, according to current policy, are applied in the model. Around an affected farm, three zones are set up: a Control Zone (CZ), radius 20km, within which no movements are allowed. Outside this, and out to 100km, a Protection Zone (PZ) is defined, within which movements are allowed. Finally, beyond this and out to a radius of 150km, is the Surveillance Zone (SZ), within which movements are allowed. Movements are also allowed from the SZ to the PZ and from the "free area" (outside all zones) to the SZ or PZ. If "No restrictions" is selected, zones are ignored and movements are only prevented from farms on which infection has been directly detected.
Pre-emptive vaccination is simulated at two different coverage levels (a randomly-selected 25% and 50% of farms) within a specified area. All farms in the respective zone are coloured blue, with the other farms in grey.
The simulations were driven by UKCP09 temperatures for individual years selected from the period 2006-2015. Temperatures are referenced with respect to the UKCP09-derived England and Wales mean temperature over May to October, which for this period was 13.8 degrees: "very high": 1.4 degC above the mean; "above average": 0.5 degC above the mean; "below average": 0.3 degC below the mean.
Affected farms are those which have experienced at least one BT infected cow or sheep.
This website is provided for information only. The animations shown here are model estimations and do not contain any recorded observations of Bluetongue-affected farms. The model estimations are based on past climate and animal movement data, they are illustrative only and do not constitute any sort of forecast for current or future conditions. The University of Liverpool shall not be responsible or in any way liable for any errors, omissions or inaccuracies on the website whether arising from negligence or otherwise howsoever or for any consequences arising therefrom. In no event shall The University of Liverpool be liable for any loss or damages of any kind arising from the use of, or inability to use, or from any content on our website or linked sites, including but not limited to, direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, and punitive damages.
© University of Liverpool 2017. All aspects of this website - design, text, graphics, applications, software, underlying source code and all other aspects - are copyright The University of Liverpool. In accessing these web pages, you agree that any downloading of content is for personal, non-commercial reference only. No part of this Site may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without our prior permission. For rights clearance please contact us.
For more information, contact firstname.lastname@example.org
© Crown Copyright 2009. The UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) have been made available by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) and the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) under licence from the Met Office, UKCIP, British Atmospheric Data Centre, Newcastle University, University of East Anglia, Environment Agency, Tyndall Centre and Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory. These organisations give no warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy of the UKCP09 and do not accept any liability for loss or damage, which may arise from reliance upon the UKCP09 and any use of the UKCP09 is undertaken entirely at the userŐs risk.