Understanding epidemics: HIV/AIDS: Geography

Projected age and sex structure and AIDS deaths, South Africa, 2009.

The graph shows projections made in 1999 of total population and AIDS deaths for South Africa to 2009. It shows a distinctive patterns of AIDS deaths:

There is a high rate of HIV deaths in the young adult age groups, starting in the 20s, a few years after first sexual experiences (due to the long lag period between infection and death), and peaking in the 30s age group for both men and women. Women have a slightly younger distribution than men. However, more women than men will be expected to die of AIDS.
There is also a bulge in the number of deaths from AIDS in the very young age groups. This is due to mother-child transmission, with very few HIV+ infants surviving into their teens.
The increasing importance of ARVs in the few years since this graph was constructed would be expected to substantially reduce the projected number of infant AIDS deaths, since one effect of ARVs given to HIV+ mothers is to reduce the likelihood of transmission of the virus to their children. Pregnant women have been among the highest priority groups for ARV therapies.

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Projected age and sex structure and AIDS deaths, South Africa, 2009. The graph shows projections made in 1999 of total population and AIDS deaths for South Africa to 2009. It shows a distinctive patterns of AIDS deaths: There is a high rate of HIV deaths in the young adult age groups, starting in the 20s, a few years after first sexual experiences (due to the long lag period between infection and death), and peaking in the 30s age group for both men and women. Women have a slightly younger distribution than men. However, more women than men will be expected to die of AIDS. There is also a bulge in the number of deaths from AIDS in the very young age groups. This is due to mother-child transmission, with very few HIV+ infants surviving into their teens. The increasing importance of ARVs in the few years since this graph was constructed would be expected to substantially reduce the projected number of infant AIDS deaths, since one effect of ARVs given to HIV+ mothers is to reduce the likelihood of transmission of the virus to their children. Pregnant women have been among the highest priority groups for ARV therapies.

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